SCM 303

 SCM 303 Essay

Exam a few Outline SCM 303

Chapter 12

Demand Planning: Predicting and demand management

Demand Planning- the combined procedure for forecasting and managing buyer demands to create a planned design of require that complies with the business operational and financial desired goals. Fluctuating client demand trigger operational issues, such as: Need for extra capability resources, backlog, customer dissatisfaction, system streaming (safety stock, safety lead time, capacity cushions, etc . )

3 fundamentals tactics to influence demand- influence the timing or perhaps quantity of demand through costs changes or perhaps promotions. Managing the time of buy fulfillment. Encourage customers to shift their orders from a single product to a different, or from one service provider to a different. Pg 358 for detailed.

Enhancing planning management- improving information accuracy and timeliness, reducing lead period, redesigning the merchandise: manufacturing post ponement, logistics solutions- logistics (geographic) postponement, adjustable assignment. Working together and showing information

Demand forecasting- a decision method in which managers predict require and help to make operational strategies accordingly

Demand management- a aggressive approach in which managers attempt to influence both the pattern or uniformity of require.

Steady Pattern- a consistent horizontal stream of demands

Seasonality and cycles- regular require patterns of repeating heights and levels.

Trend- the general sloping tendency of demand, possibly upward or perhaps downward, in a linear or perhaps nonlinear style

Move or stage change- a onetime enhancements made on demand, usually due to a lot of external effect on require.

Autocorrelation- the relationship of current demand beliefs with previous demand values.

Forecast error- the difference between a forecast plus the actual require.

Outlook accuracy- actions how tightly the prediction aligns with the observations with time. Every mistake, whether positive or unfavorable, reduces forecast accuracy.

Forecast bias- indicates it tends of a foretelling of technique to above or underneath predict

Proper level planning- generates permanent forecasts of demand (more than twelve months into the future), that are used to create grand technology or center plans

Technical planning- produces forecasts of demand for merchandise families or for particular geographic locations in order to aid intermediate (6to 18months) capability and useful resource plans

Detailed detailed forecasts- used to do short term (daily or weekly) product arranging

Forecasting- different forecasts for different purposes, forecasting, while inherently flawed, is critical to the success of each firm. Central Premise: for every event, there is certainly some leading indicator, the secret to success is to realize that indicator

Designing a forecasting process- pg. 347

Most frequent approaches to foretelling of of qualitative judgment structured forecasting

Grassroots forecasting- a technique that seeks advices from people who are in close contact with consumers and products.

Executive Judgment- predicting techniques apply input from high level experienced managers

Historical analogy- a foretelling of technique that uses info and encounter from similar products to forecast the demand for a new product

Marketing research- a forecasting technique that facets forecasts on the purchasing patterns and perceptions of current or potential clients

Delphi Method- forecasts developed by asking a panel of professionals to independently and consistently respond to a number of questions

Most common quantitative model centered forecasting-

Time-series studies- extrapolate predictions from past demand info. Consists of shifting average rapid smoothing.

Casual studies- look for informal relationships between leading parameters and predicted variables. Contains various types of regression evaluation.

Simulation models- make an effort to represent past phenomena in mathematical associations and then assess data to project...


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